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Switching Industries

If you switch industries, which is best and why?

Two approaches are used here to answer these questions:

1. Total employment growth tends for the last 50 years
2. Market share trends for the last 50 years

BLS projection to 2016 shown as a blue dot in the graphs below.

The basic axiom is simple: If the overall trends for an industry are growing and robust, demand exceeds supply and your odds of finding a job go up. Likewise, you odds of keeping your job also go up.

If total employment growth and market share are both projected to go down by 2016, you will see that we do not recommend that industry sector long term.

Industries

Natural Resources and Mining has fewer workers today than 50 years ago. Total employment peaked in the early 1980s and has declined ever since ... save for the last 5 years. Recent employment growth has been very strong but the BLS projections for 2016 show a decline. Market share has been declining for the last 50 years, save for the bubble in the early 1980s. Here again, there is some recent growth but the BLS projections show a decline by 2016. Recommendation: Short term yes because there is a current demand for workers in this industry. Long term no - this industry is projected to decline in both total employment and market share. Also note that there are very few workers in this industry compared to the others.
Construction is a roller-coaster ride with ups and downs every few years. The typical dip is about 14% and it lasts for about 5 years. If history repeats, 2008 will be the bottom of the current dip. Total employment growth from 1958 to 1988 was soft - less than the population growth and market share was declining. In the last 20 years however employment growth has been very strong. Market share is rising, perhaps because of foreign investments in commercial building and America's weak dollar. Recommendation: Short term no because the demand for worker is very low. Long term maybe depending on whether or not you can withstand the periodic ups and downs.
Manufacturing employment peaked in 1979 and has declined ever since ... and it is projected to decline even more. From the mid 1980s to 2000, total employment was relatively stable (flat) at around 17 to 18 million. Total employment in the last 10 years has gone down 23% - an unprecedented loss of 3 to 4 million jobs. No other industry has performed this poorly. Market share has also gone down, from about 30% in 1958 to 10% in 2008 ... and it's headed down even more. Recommendation: Short term no and long term no - with every passing year finding a job will get more difficult ... and keeping the job you have in manufacturing will get more difficult. This will put downward pressure on salaries in an industry that has historically been our highest-paying.
Wholesale Trade has been growing slower than the population growth for the last 25 years (because market share has been declining). This industry suffers during recessions. Total employment is growing slowly and is projected to continue growing slowly through 2016. Market share has been declining for the last 25 years save for a recent swing up in the last 5 years. The BLS however projects this to go back down. Recommendation: Short term maybe  because employment growth is slow. Long term maybe because of the periodic dips and because market share is generally declining.
Retail Trade has been growing slower than the population growth for the last 20 years (because market share has been declining). This industry suffers during recessions. Total employment is growing slowly and is projected to continue growing through 2016. Market share has been declining for the last 20 years and is projected by the BLS to continue declining. Recommendation: Short term no because employment has declined in the last 12 months. Long term maybe because of the periodic dips and because market share is declining.
Transportation & Warehousing is growing and is projected to continue growing. Data before 1972 is not available. Total employment has dips that coincide with recessions. Market share is an interesting and unexpected curve, dropping sharply in the 1970s and then rising overall from 1982 to 2008. However, there is some recent flattening of the curve and a slight decline in the last 8 years or so ... and the 2016 projections are relatively flat. Recommendation: Short term maybe because the recent employment growth is soft. Long term maybe because market share is flat to slightly declining.
Utilities employment peaked in 1990 and has generally declined ever since. Interestingly, this industry does not seem to be affected by recessions ... at least not as much as other industries. Total employment has grown slightly recently but is projected to go down by 2016. Market share has been declining generally for the last 50 years and is also projected to decline even more. Recommendation: Short term maybe because recent growth is up slightly. Long term no because employment and market share are both declining.
Information "bubbled" in 2001. Total employment has grown steadily for the last 50 years (except for the bubble) and is projected to grow more by 2016. Market share has been declining for the last 50 years (except for the bubble) and is expected to decline more. Recommendation: Short term no because recent employment is declining. Long term maybe because employment will grow as market share decreases. (Information includes Publishing industries, except Internet, Motion picture and sound recording industries, Broadcasting, except Internet, Telecommunications, Data processing, hosting and related services)
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate employment has grown steadily for the last 50 years. Total employment generally goes up continuously; and during recessions, it pauses without dips. Market share has been flat since about 1986 and is projected to go up slightly by 2016. Recommendation: Short term no because employment in the last 12 months has declined. Long term maybe because total employment and market share are both projected to go up by 2016, but employment fluctuates. (Includes Monetary authorities - central bank, Credit intermediation and related activities, Depository credit intermediation, Commercial banking Securities, commodity contracts, investments, Insurance carriers, Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles, Real estate and rental and leasing, Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets)
Professional and Business Services has been growing for the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing. Total employment growth is very strong, save for a dip in 2002. Interestingly, this industry did not dip significantly during previous recessions. Market share also continues to climb significantly, save for the 2002 dip and it is projected to climb even more. Recommendation: Short term maybe  because recent employment growth is a little soft. Long term yes because both total employment and market share are growing very nicely. (Includes Legal, Accounting, Architectural, Computer systems design, Management consulting, Management of companies and enterprises, Administrative and waste services, Employment services, Temporary help services, Business support services, Services to buildings and dwellings, Waste management and remediation services)
Educational Services employment has only been tracked since 1990. Prior to this it was tracked as Education and health services combined. Total employment growth is very strong and is expected to continue growing thru 2016. Market share is also growing nicely and expected to continue growing thru 2016. Recommendation: Short term yes. Long term yes.
Healthcare and Social Assistance employment has only been tracked since 1990. Prior to this it was tracked as Education and health services combined. Total employment growth is very strong and is expected to continue growing thru 2016. Market share is also growing nicely and expected to continue growing thru 2016. Recommendation: Short term yes. Long term yes.
Leisure & Hospitality has been growing nicely for the last 50 years and is projected to continue growing nicely. Total employment never really dips - it just seems to flatten out during recessions to let things catch up. Market share is also growing nicely although the BLS projection for market share growth by 2016 is only modest. Recommendation: Short term yes. Long term yes.
Other includes Repair and maintenance, Personal and laundry services, Membership associations and organizations. Total employment has been growing nicely for 50 years and is expected to continue growing thru 2016. Market share has also grown nicely, but has slowed down for the last 15 years or so ... but is expected to go up by 2016. Recommendation: Short term maybe because employment growth has been a little soft. Long term yes because market share is increasing.
Government employment has been growing steadily for the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing. Total employment seems almost recession proof, except for a dip in the early 1980s. Market share has been declining since 1974 with periodic ups and downs. It is projected to decline even more by 2016. Recommendation: Short term maybe because employment growth has been a little soft. Long term maybe because market share is declining.

What you can and should do next

Read through JobBait for a thorough understanding of how to get yourself in front of the decision-makers most likely to hire you. Then, request our free Executive Job Market Report. The job market changes every month, and this will keep you up to date. This will also help you determine your best strategy for finding a job, whether you're switching industries, relocating or staying where you are.

If you already have the Executive Job Market Report, take advantage of our free Market Evaluation.