Seasonal Job-Finding Trends for Executives
When are the best and
worst times of year to find a job?
To answer these questions, we looked at the monthly
hiring trends, comparing when jobs were actually filled
against the monthly statistics for the number of
executives actively job hunting. We used the years 2004, 2005 and 2006
because the employment trends were relatively flat and
stable. We did not use 2007 and 2008 because employment
overall was declining, and these years would bias the
results.
Here are the "gee whiz" results:
- Overall, the best time of year to look
for a job appears to be May and June.
- Fall is better than average in most
industries.
- December is about average (contrary to
myth, legend and rumor).
- The worst time is
January and February (contrary to
myth, legend and rumor) because there are more
executives looking for jobs.
- The best and
worst times vary widely by industry.
Monthly hiring rates
The Bureau of Labor Statistic's Job Openings and
Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
produces data on job openings, hires, and
separations.
 We
averaged the monthly hiring rates for 2004, 05 and 06
and converted the data to "percent of the average." The
results are shown in the graph on the right for total
nonfarm - all industries combined.
This graph makes logical sense - hiring goes up in
the Spring and early Summer, and declines in the Fall.
Notice that hiring rates vary by about 45% between
the peak in June and the lowest point in December. At
first glance, this would imply that December is the
worst time to look for a job ... but that's not true ... read
on.
Monthly volume of executive job-seekers
Google Trends tracks how often a search term is
used. Their data is weekly, and we had to do some
conversions to get the monthly trends, again for the
combined years 2004, 05 and 06.
 We
averaged the Google results for the search term
"Executive Jobs," when executives are looking
for jobs. The results are shown in the graph on
the right.
This graph also makes logical sense - executives
are less likely to look for a job in the Fall.
Notice that the search volume varies by about 35%
from the peaks in January and July to the lowest point
in December. It appears that executives are holding off
on their job search during the Fall, waiting for better
times to come around in January and February.
What about December?
Most executives believe that December is a terrible
time to look for a job. This is NOT TRUE.
It is true that the hiring rates go down to 75% of
the average in December, but the number of executives
looking for a job goes down to 76% of the average. There
are, quite simply, fewer executives looking for fewer
jobs in December. All things considered, December is about average
for looking for a job. November is better and January is
worse, as you will see in the table below.
Which month is "best" for an executive looking for a
job?
To calculate this, we divided the JOLTS hiring rate
by industry by the Google search rate and subtracted 1. Here are the
results by industry in terms of best or
worst:
|
Industry |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
Total nonfarm |
-22% |
-21% |
-4% |
3% |
14% |
17% |
-5% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
10% |
-1% |
|
Natural resources and mining |
-17% |
-15% |
3% |
35% |
15% |
18% |
-3% |
2% |
-14% |
2% |
-5% |
-6% |
|
Construction |
-28% |
-21% |
9% |
39% |
30% |
29% |
-9% |
0% |
-2% |
-5% |
-9% |
-21% |
|
Manufacturing |
-8% |
-12% |
2% |
1% |
16% |
14% |
0% |
9% |
0% |
7% |
-2% |
-16% |
|
Durable goods |
-4% |
-9% |
4% |
0% |
17% |
20% |
-5% |
6% |
-2% |
8% |
-6% |
-19% |
|
Nondurable goods |
-13% |
-18% |
-2% |
3% |
14% |
4% |
8% |
14% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
-12% |
|
Wholesale trade |
-14% |
-18% |
4% |
15% |
12% |
18% |
-10% |
16% |
2% |
14% |
-12% |
-13% |
|
Retail trade |
-37% |
-26% |
-4% |
1% |
10% |
9% |
-11% |
4% |
2% |
25% |
50% |
7% |
|
Transp., warehousing, utilities |
-1% |
-22% |
-11% |
-14% |
1% |
-5% |
-14% |
18% |
25% |
-1% |
28% |
24% |
|
Information |
-28% |
4% |
-6% |
-2% |
14% |
15% |
-7% |
3% |
1% |
5% |
28% |
-9% |
|
Financial activities |
-20% |
-20% |
-6% |
1% |
24% |
17% |
1% |
-8% |
3% |
13% |
14% |
1% |
|
Finance and insurance |
-13% |
-22% |
-4% |
-1% |
14% |
12% |
0% |
-4% |
4% |
11% |
20% |
4% |
|
Real estate & rental and leasing |
-30% |
-17% |
-8% |
4% |
40% |
26% |
3% |
-15% |
1% |
16% |
3% |
-5% |
|
Professional & business services |
-13% |
-21% |
-3% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
-6% |
8% |
6% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
|
Educational services |
-18% |
-14% |
-38% |
-18% |
-19% |
13% |
2% |
39% |
95% |
5% |
-20% |
-20% |
|
Health care and social assistance |
-15% |
-18% |
-7% |
-6% |
7% |
12% |
2% |
17% |
12% |
9% |
3% |
2% |
|
Leisure and hospitality |
-31% |
-21% |
5% |
9% |
30% |
24% |
-3% |
5% |
-4% |
0% |
5% |
0% |
|
Arts, entertainment, & recreation |
-25% |
-38% |
-7% |
36% |
75% |
55% |
5% |
-17% |
-19% |
-31% |
-18% |
-4% |
|
Accommodation & food services |
-33% |
-18% |
7% |
4% |
22% |
19% |
-4% |
9% |
-1% |
5% |
9% |
1% |
|
Other services |
-15% |
-19% |
-8% |
5% |
10% |
42% |
3% |
3% |
-4% |
-2% |
2% |
-3% |
|
Government |
-18% |
-33% |
-31% |
-27% |
0% |
27% |
-1% |
57% |
59% |
2% |
-7% |
-19% |
|
Federal |
-15% |
-30% |
-24% |
-8% |
11% |
17% |
1% |
14% |
50% |
-16% |
| | 
