What happened to job growth during the 12 months before and
after an election?
Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford
are not included because they became Presidents without an
election.
| President |
Before |
After |
| John Kennedy |
Declined |
Grew |
| Richard Nixon |
Grew |
Declined |
| Jimmy Carter |
Declined |
Grew |
| Ronald Regan |
Grew |
Grew |
| George H. Bush |
Grew |
Declined |
| Bill Clinton |
Grew |
Grew |
| George W. Bush |
Declined |
Declined |
| Next Unknown |
Declined |
? |
The take-away: It appears that one cannot draw the conclusion that
Presidential elections are predictable indicators of job growth either way.
Here's another way to look at this:
- Nixon: We had just been through 7 years of good times
... we were due for another down cycle.
- Carter: Was probably lucky - employment growth was
already on it's way back up.
- Regan: Was probably unlucky - he was caught in the
middle of two back-to-back recessions.
- George H: Was unlucky - after 6 years of good times, we
were due for another down cycle.
- Clinton: Was lucky - employment growth was already on
it's way back up.
- George W: Was unlucky - we had just been through 8 years
of good times - a recession was due.
